Many people already know that the only time Raila odinga had a serious stab at the presidency was in the year 2017 when it was clear kibaki may have lost to the Enigma, Agwambo the son of Jaramogi.
But let’s face It, that was a brawl pitting one region against the rest of the country.
Raila had fanatical followers in luo Nyanza, almost all of Luhyaland with the exception of some potions of Trans-nzoia (the Bukusus). All had voted overwhelmingly for the for Prime Minister.
It should be noted here that Raila was working with our Deputy President who I must emphasize here , had delivered the whole of Kalenjin land up to the last man to Raila Odinga.
Then it was the coast province with sultan, Governor 001 Hassan Joho and Kilifi the fierily Amason kingi.
Ukambani of course was whipped by Kalonzo Musyoka almost overwhelmingly.
Everybody would understand the anger and frustration that followed. No wonder the violence that followed.
It was a resounding victory for Raila Odinga snatched from his hands by Kibaki and I will emphasize that must have served as the only and the last time Raila came very close to becoming a president.
Raila doesn’t know the person he is dealing with. This may not even be referred to as duel but rather a serious spanking from the son of Sugoi.
Ruto has graduated from the school of politics and he is now a full professor of politics.
Make no mistake His Excellency President Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta is not a minnow either as far as politics is concerned, He was once but not anymore.
It was until he was schooled in the class of William Samoei Ruto (the professor of politics) and of course their lecturer, the late former President Daniel Moi.
In the first elections pitting Jubilee and O.D.M many were left bewildered how the two were able to kick off the cases at the ICC and defeat Raila Odinga at the same time.
To Raila it seemed a straight forward victory. until He saw the two being declared winners.
This was not a mean feat but a well planned maneuver that swept Raila Odinga off his feet.
I would say, galvanizing the two blocks, which is the mount Kenya and Rift valley block was easy. They had to vote for their two sons sympathetically if only to help them shake off the shackles of the ICC in their legs. So they gave them sympathy votes.
But for them to garner votes in places like Maasai land and other places it must be told here was pure brilliance of nobody else but William Samoei Ruto.
Whoever saw this man on the campaign trail will be awed by his mastery of issues. He would articulate issues only possible if you are reading from a book.
The only place that stood against Samoei Ruto in His race to Presidency in 2022 was possibly Mt Kenya region and with our president turning out as a opponent of His deputy, it looked as though Mt Kenya would shift their support to Raila Odinga, But facts on the ground gives a different tale.
The ground has refused to shift and aelling Raila Odinga in Mt Kenya is like selling cold soda during the winter.
This can be proven by the last rally held in Mt Kenya region, where open defiance was portrayed by the residents who walked out on Raila in that meeting.
Even though politics in Kenya is a fluid matter, the only thing that won’t change any time soon, is the fact that we still vote along ethnic lines.
Therefore it would be fair to say that luo Nyanza will stick with Raila to the last man. He will meanwhile score better in Kakamega, Busia and Butere mumias. He wil also get a sizeable Number in Kisii region.
It will also be unfair to say that he won’t get good votes in Kilifi and Lamu but Mombasa and Malindi will be a fair game for Araap Ruto, bearing in mind a large pollution in these places are from upcountry.
A large number of Kikuyus Taitas and Somalis who will vote for Ruto.
Then when you go to Ukambani it will be a 50:50 affair.
Assuming that Governor Ngilu and Dr Mutua will choose to work together and deliver votes to Raila, which is unlikely given that Dr mutua, The governor of Machakos has already announced His intentions to vie for Presidency.
It will not surprise anyone for Honorable Kalonzo Musyoka to work with William Ruto bearing in mind the odds of going either alone or working with Raila Odinga.
Mt Kenya alone has over 40% of all registered votes in Kenya assuming Ruto gets 70% of that block; this would mean 30% already delivered.
Rift valley is a cosmopolitan region, but it must be agreed that kalenjin and kikuyu consist of the majority of all the tribes in the region followed by the luhya, the luo and kisii in that order.
This will mean over 70% votes for Ruto leaving like 20% to Raila odinga. 10% would likely go to other candidates like DR Okot.
Northeastern province will deliver majority votes for Ruto bearing in mind the influence of the majority leader, Aden Duale.
So anybody who doesn’t smell the coffee needS to take some medication and clear their nostrils. Its history repeating itself here.